Mayoral Musings with Nancy Sims

In political campaigns, we often discuss the ethnic vote in detail.  Yet, we do not treat the “white” vote in a similar manner.  Bottom line is that in this run-off campaign, white voters are very much in play.  They may be able to swing the election. 

One of the reasons we don’t usually focus on the white vote is its diversity.  There are white liberals, inner-loopers, west-side conservatives, Kingwood, Clear Lake, etc. and they all have varying voting patterns. 

We usually couch our discussion of “white voters” in terms such as “the west-side voter” or “District C” where we are referring to mostly high income, inner loop and near loop voters.    We often refer to Clear Lake and Kingwood voters by the subdivision name as well as the Heights and Spring Branch. 

Bottom line – these voters are all very different in attitudes and voting patterns. 

Yet, in this run-off campaign between Parker and Locke, their voting patterns will likely dictate the election outcome.

Let’s look a little deeper.  African-American voters are likely to coalesce behind Gene Locke now.  I will give him 80% of that vote.  That still leaves Parker with an opportunity to garner some support in the community.  We may see African-American women voters still supporting her.  The key for Locke is to increase turnout among his core voters and return them to the polls.  He must generate excitement among the community and dedicate dollars to aggressive turnout operations. 

The Latino vote is still relevant.  Though it was about 9% in the first round, it’s still enough to make a difference in a close election.  Parker did very well in the first round but Locke is making an aggressive play for this vote.  Parker will need to expend some effort with Latino voters to shore up their support.

That leaves us with the vast pool of white voters.  Inner loop liberals voted heavily for Parker and will stay with her.  She also performed well across all predominantly white voting precincts, finishing first or second.  Many of those voters are likely to return to the polls.  District A has a run-off and Parker performed very well there. 

Locke has to do something to move this vote away from Parker.  But Gene Locke has worked for social justice most of his life – civil and human rights.  He’s a Democrat.  Will he cut deals with the white conservative voter to gain their support? 

If he can shore up the African-American vote and split the difference on the Latino vote, he only needs about 1/3 of white voters.  Those Roy Morales supporters are going to go somewhere and he wants them. 

This is a very close election.  Turnout scenarios can create paths to victory for either candidate. 

And, expect the negative attacks to significantly increase as the candidates battle in a tough election.